Archive for the ‘China’ Category

Chinese Yuan vs British Pound Exchange Rates

Monday, October 13th, 2008


The Chinese Yuan has strengthened nearly 25% against the British Pound since the beginning of 2008. For those traders buying in pounds, or to a lesser, yet still significant effect, in Euros, profit is being eroded or wiped out completely.

Is the trend of a strengthening Yuan likely to change in the near future. Yes……. but not significantly.

I expect to see the Yuan level at around 12.00 to the pound this week, however that is still a 20% drop on earlier this year……… I also then expect the Yuan….. over the course of the next year to strengthen by around 3%.

This is not necessarily as catastrophic as one might imagine. As the Yuan strengthens against the Pound and particularly the Euro, the cost of Chinese capital asset purchases from Europe will come down. Externally purchased raw materials, many of which also come from Europe, will come down. As the ‘value added’ in China is mainly labour of which this may only represent between 10% and 30% of the finished goods price the net effect of currency fluctuations may not be quite so dramatic.

It does of course take time for these anomalies to balance. Raw material purchases are often made well in advance of the eventual sale and there will not be any purchase gains made by Chinese companies on sales made today. However it is important that when negotiating your next order or contract that you factor in the likely savings to be made in China and pursue reductions accordingly.

The Chinese will not volunteer this information and will be happy to sit back and take the extra profit when it comes……. and why shouldn’t they?……… I would.

One final thing to consider is that China exports more goods to the USA than anywhere else in the world but its US imports are tiny by comparison. The Yuan, whilst not officially pegged to the US Dollar, follows it closely. It suits the US to have China buying its machines and raw materials more cheaply from Europe thus allowing China to sell its goods more cheaply to the US whilst still being politically expedient at home in not allowing the Dollar to strengthen appreciably against the Yuan.

Whilst ever China and the US are satisfied with the situation it is unlikely to change and as such I cannot see the exchange rates altering significantly any time soon.

Global financial crisis impact on China

Wednesday, October 8th, 2008

Having just come off a conference call with some of my Chinese suppliers, discussing the impact the global financial meltdown was going to have on trade, I have to say that I detected a certain amount of arrogance and conceit rarely displayed.

China is fortunate to be still experiencing double digit growth this year and 9.1% predicted growth next year but now is not the time to remind me of that fact. And indeed much of this growth is linked in some way or other to foreign global trade.

Capitalism and free markets are not something many Chinese have much experience of and whilst at the moment they hardly seem defensible, they are what they are and they find their own level. The impact of the global financial crisis has not impacted China at the higher echelons just yet but is impacting shop floor workers who are losing jobs due to decreased demand for products. This will get worse not better and I have to wonder where all the growth will come from then.

I have a great deal of respect for Chinese business and practises and a great deal of time for the Chinese people but I would warn against an overt display of conceited arrogance at this troubling time.

The world is getting smaller and we are all in this together…….nobody will escape completely unscathed and we are yet to see who the biggest losers will be.

Death of the China Trader or the Western retailer

Thursday, October 2nd, 2008


For at least the last 200 years trading companies have successfully linked Chinese manufacturers with worldwide consumers. They have provided a valuable link between buyer and seller, often drawing on connections, ‘Guanxi’ to maximise opportunities. In many cases trading companies have provided additional valuable services such as inspection, quality control and relationship management. Additionally, on large orders, traders may have drawn on their considerable contacts to consolidate a number of different suppliers and manufacturers to ensure supply. Let us not also forget that trading companies, most of which were Hong Kong based carried a little more trust and were under the jurisdiction of international trading laws.

What has changed?…………………… Attitude.

Buyers for large consumer companies are now very focussed on a number of additional areas. Whereas, in years past, the focus may have been centred mainly around quality and price there are today many more areas that the buyer has to consider. Powerful global brands must ensure they act responsibly in all areas of commerce. Attention is focussed on the social and working conditions of manufacturing staff. The brands consumers expect their brand to treat all contributing staff members equally whether they be in a low cost manufacturing environment or a well established western factory. Great damage to a brands image can occur if they are found to be allowing, whether knowingly or innocently, any inappropriate practise in any of their production establishments.

Here lies a problem. The relationship between a buyer, his trader and the manufacturer is often compartmentalised. The trader does not wish for the buyer to be introduced to the manufacturer for fear that this could eliminate him from future projects. The trader will often go to great lengths to ensure the buyer does not become privy to such knowledge. Understandably, for the reason quoted this is quite reasonable, however in some cases the reasons could be quite ulterior. Perhaps the trader is not applying the working practise principles the buyer has demanded or perhaps the environmental conditions imposed by the buyer are not being adhered to. Buyers nowadays are becoming more insistent on supplier factory visits as part of their risk management plan and traders are having to accommodate this without losing the continued opportunities in the future. There is much talk that trading companies will evolve into development, quality control, inspection and relationship management companies, but essentially these are activities that could be conducted by the buyers company themselves without the need for the trading company.

A significant value adding activity conducted by traders was using their networks and knowledge to match buyers and sellers but with the increasing use of the internet as a sales mechanism but more importantly a procurement tool there is a question mark over how long this benefit will last. The atmosphere among Western buyers these days is to get as close to the source as possible, to improve and protect quality, brand and reputation and of course, to eliminate any double margin.

The outcome may be that traders bite back………

Trading companies have a huge arsenal of products. All they have to do now is get those products to market and as discussed earlier the internet is an increasingly useful tools to do just that. If this happens all consumer companies need to beware. Trading companies are often very lean as they are accustomed to working on paper thin margins. A brand name will carry sway for many consumers but ultimately it is about the product and as we all know many different brands of differing price points come out of the same Chinese factories. A savvy internet consumer, able to access the right information, as is increasingly easy to do will make an informed choice and might just yet cut-out the Western retailer.